(Note: This was originally published in February, as pitchers and catchers reported. We updated the file on July 1, 2020, just after the 60-game season was announced)
We asked our MLB beat writers — who know the teams they cover better than anyone — who the surprise player on their team will be this year.
From untapped power bats like Ryan O’Hearn (with a 651.14 NFBC ADP in March) to possible closer options in Blake Treinen and Tony Watson, there are plenty of sleepers for a fantasy player to consider…
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Zach Buchanan, @ZHBuchanan
I’ll go with Zac Gallen. I think he is the most likely to be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks’ staff, and that includes Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver. He was nothing but excellent in the majors last year with the Marlins and then the Diamondbacks, although he needs to rein in his walks. I see no reason why he wouldn’t continue to be very good in the Arizona rotation. Another dark horse would be Luke Weaver, who was great before his elbow injury last year, although that injury still lingers as a possible threat to his health sometime next season. He’ll have to show he’s fully past it.
ATLANTA BRAVES
David O’Brien, @DOBrienATL
I’ll go with Johan Camargo, who as things currently stand will compete with Austin Riley for the starting third-base job at spring training, after Josh Donaldson left as a free agent. I think Camargo will win the job, but even if he doesn’t he’ll get extensive playing time in a super-utility role. In his only season as a lineup regular in 2018, when he was the primary third baseman in his second year in the majors, Camargo hit .272 with 19 homers, 76 RBIs and an .806 OPS in 134 games. Last season he was supplanted at third base by Josh Donaldson after the Braves signed Donaldson for his big bat, and Camargo showed up for spring training overweight and hit just .233 with seven homers and a .633 OPS in 98 games. This year he’s lost 15 pounds after a ramped-up offseason regimen, and he looks like he did in 2018 after shedding bulk that slowed his swing and limited his defensive range in 2019.(Note: With the DH in the NL now, there’s obviously room for both!)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Dan Connolly, @danconnolly2016
I’m going with Austin Hays, because I think he was dismissed after his lost 2018 season, but the center field job is his to lose and he is only 24. I don’t think he bats .309 like he did in September, but a .275 average with 15-20 homers and 10-15 steals (pace) is not out of the question. Plus, most of the Orioles’ obvious “surprise” guys on offense took the step last year (Santander, Alberto, Nunez), and I’m just not gutsy enough to pick a pitcher.
BOSTON RED SOX
Chad Jennings, @chadjennings22
Andrew Benintendi was pretty close to becoming a star player two years ago, but his production declined significantly and he’ll enter this season thoroughly in the shadow of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez. Particularly if the Red Sox follow through on a Mookie Betts trade, Benintendi could get a lot more attention in the outfield and return to a key role at the top of the lineup.
CHICAGO CUBS
Patrick Mooney, @PJ_Mooney
It would not be shocking if Rowan Wick, a guy who got drafted as a catcher and spent years as an outfielder in the St. Louis system, wound up closing more games this season than Craig Kimbrel, the game’s active saves leader. That is how confident the Cubs are in their Pitch Lab, which helped Wick develop into one of their most trusted relievers last year. That illustrates the questions surrounding Kimbrel, who struggled to stay healthy and rediscover his All-Star form last year after a long free-agent holdout. There is no closer controversy yet. Kimbrel should have the ninth inning on Opening Day. But Wick will be a reliever worth monitoring.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
James Fegan, @JRFegan
I don’t know how much I buy him being drastically improved—though the White Sox certainly do—but if you’re worried about Nomar Mazara getting significantly platooned, or having a short leash, those do not seem to be legitimate concerns going into the season. The White Sox are very all in on the idea that they are going to unlock his former top prospect potential, which includes exposing him to left-handed pitching. That will ding his rate stats, but probably keep his raw totals from slipping to part-time player levels. Mazara feels his last two seasons have really been marred by a thumb injury, and that his 2018 first half is the real him, and if you buy the 2020 White Sox offense as a whole, his RBI opportunities should be present even hitting near the bottom of the order.
CINCINNATI REDS
C. Trent Rosecrans, @ctrent
I’m not really sure how to answer this, not that the Reds are full of stars, but they have such a weird roster construction right now with an abundance of outfielders and playing time being split up between many players, so it seems unlikely you can pick on of those. The infield is pretty set, and everyone knows Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez. As is my understanding, bench players aren’t big for fantasy, nor are non-closer relievers. The starters aren’t huge question marks and the catchers could platoon. So does that leave Freddy Galvis? Galvis (like the rest of MLB) had a career-best number of homers last year and he’ll be playing every day and at Great American Ball Park. So Freddy Galvis?
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Zack Meisel, @ZackMeisel
Franmil Reyes ranked in the 99th percentile in the majors last year in exit velocity and the 98th percentile in hard hit rate. Only three players hit the ball with more authority. He saves video of his most majestic home runs on his phone to marvel at on rainy days, and it’s hard to blame him. He should hit 40 or so (pace-wise) of those in 2020, with the potential to develop into one of the more imposing sluggers in the American League. The downside, of course, is his defense. The Indians don’t know yet if he can handle regular playing time in the outfield. Plus, he’s not exactly fleet of foot. But he can launch fastballs into the outfield seats as often as anyone, and that should garner him more attention this season.
DETROIT TIGERS
Cody Stavenhagen, @CodyStavenhagen
The Tigers don’t exactly have a ton to be excited about, but keep an eye on Niko Goodrum. He will enter spring training as the favorite to become the team’s everyday shortstop. He’s spent the past two years playing a super-utility role and playing it pretty well. There might not be a huge ceiling with his bat, but Goodrum’s at-bats should skyrocket if he stays healthy, and he will likely hit at the top or middle of the order. He hit only 12 home runs last year, but there’s enough pop in his bat to hit 20 in a good year. His walk rate has slowly increased, now at 9.7 percent, and he could continue that trend. If he indeed locks down the SS role, the stability could be a huge help.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Jake Kaplan, @jakemkaplan
José Urquidy will still technically be a rookie this season, but he’s all but guaranteed the fourth or fifth spot in the Astros’ opening day rotation. He has already performed on the sport’s biggest stage, having pitched five scoreless innings at Nationals Park in Game 5 of the World Series, and has the combination of command and stuff to be a quality major league starter. His season-long workload is a question mark and he will have to adjust to hitters as they see him more, but if everything breaks right he could pitch 150 quality innings for Houston this year.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Alec Lewis, @Alec_Lewis
Being that Adalberto Mondesi is coming off of left shoulder surgery and still hasn’t put together a seasons worth of numbers, I’m tempted to jot him down as the guy to watch. But you’re reading this, so you already know his speed and power combo is going to be a weapon. So I’ll give you another name: Ryan O’Hearn. Look, this entire offseason, the Royals brass has been beaming about the 26-year-old first baseman, who has not been able to find consistency at the big-league level. O’Hearn’s hard-hit rate (43.9 percent in 2019) has even new manager Mike Matheny optimistic. The dude’s competitiveness doesn’t hurt. Similar to Hunter Dozier’s progression last year, the Royals see this as O’Hearn’s time to hit. And maybe, just maybe, with pitching prospects such as Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar emerging, O’Hearn’s hitting could open up winning opportunities similar to that of your team’s.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Pedro Moura, @pedromoura
The Dodgers signed Blake Treinen because they think they can get him back to his 2018 form. If they can, he’ll quickly ascend to the closer role, because Kenley Jansen has spent years now trying and failing to recapture and his dominant days. If Treinen’s as good as he was in 2018 and this team is as good as it could be, that sounds like a tidy formula for 50-plus saves.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Fabian Ardaya, @FabianArdaya
It’s too early to really project what Jo Adell’s 2020 will look like, though he’s probably the most likely guy to make a significant impact besides the obvious candidates such as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani. If he comes up to the big leagues and hits right away, he has enough natural ability to be an immediate star. But since as of now he likely won’t start on the Opening Day roster, it’s a tough sell. Andrew Heaney, Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons seem primed for bounce-backs from injury-plagued seasons, but the guy I’m most intrigued to see come off a year ended by injury is Griffin Canning. The homegrown right-hander showed an ability to both miss bats (69.5 percent opponent contact rate, per FanGraphs) and induce weak contact (.299 xWOBA, per StatCast), so if he’s able to put together a full season’s worth of production I’m eager to see what the end results are
MIAMI MARLINS
Andre Fernandez, @FernandezAndreC
Funny you say ‘non-superstar’ since that’s pretty much the entire roster. I think Brian Anderson has a shot at being an All-Star, maybe a reserve since he’ll probably split time at 3B and RF again. But I’ll go with a guy who could put up numbers in various categories and I believe will be their most impactful offseason pickup – Jonathan Villar. He should give Miami a running game and a consistent leadoff hitter for the first time since Dee Gordon was there. Villar already put up good numbers on a bad team last year and the Marlins (although still rebuilding) should be better than those Orioles.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Derek VanRiper, @DerekVanRiper
(Note: DVR isn’t the Milwaukee beat writer, but he hosts the Brewers podcast and is a super-fan, so we figured…close enough!)
Luis Urias could miss time at the beginning of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his left wrist in late January, but he should serve as the Brewers’ starting shortstop once he’s healthy. Last season, he tapped into more power than ever at Triple-A El Paso, swatting 19 homers in 73 games and posting a .315/.398/.600 line (137 wRC+) in the Pacific Coast League. Although he’ll only turn 23 in June, some of the prospect luster has faded, but now he’s in a more potent lineup, in a more-hitter friendly home park, and brings steady plate skills (career 9.3% BB%, 21.9% K%) with a more flyball-heavy approach (career-low 37.9% GB% at Triple-A). He may begin the season as a waiver-wire player in shallow mixed leagues, but he could finish 2020 as a key cog in one of the NL’s most potent lineups.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Aaron Gleeman, @AaronGleeman
Lewis Thorpe’s first taste of the majors involved an ERA over 6.00, but he missed plenty of bats, showed that he can get veteran hitters to chase his fastball up in the zone, and flashed a plus slider than can be a true out-pitch. Just as importantly when trying to identify sleepers, the Twins are big believers, repeatedly touting Thorpe throughout the offseason as a young player ready to become a key contributor in 2020. His minor-league track record is very strong, including huge strikeout rates at every level, and the 24-year-old lefty has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter on a team that should provide plenty of run support.
NEW YORK METS
Tim Britton, @TimBritton
Perhaps being one of the game’s 15 best outfielders over the last three years should remove Michael Conforto from consideration here; the guess is you’ve already heard of him. But Conforto’s potential has seemed to outstep his actual production of late, dating to when he hit two homers in a World Series game as a rookie in 2015 and when he OPS’d better than .900 as a 24-year-old All-Star in 2017.
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In the two years since then, Conforto has merely been good to very good, and not quite a superstar. That creates a solid baseline, though still with some room for growth. (Hey, the same profile landed Zack Wheeler nine figures in free agency.) The exit velocity might not be elite, but the barrel numbers are, which means more. Although he struggled with lefties last season he hit them very well in 2018, and his lifetime numbers against southpaws have been skewed by the disproportionate number of plate appearances he had against lefty specialists early in his career. In 2019, he lowered his ground-ball rate while hitting the ball in the air more, and he topped 30 homers and 90 RBIs for the first time.
Protection may be overstated, but Conforto will operate next year in the middle of the lineup alongside Pete Alonso, and there should be plenty of chances to drive in Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil ahead of him.
Conforto’s consistently delivered a walk rate around 13 percent to buffer his OBP, and there’s no doubt about the power. If he can shorten the slumps that sap his batting average, he’s got a chance to be every bit as good as he was in 2017, with higher fantasy value thanks to the players around him this time.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Meghan Montemurro, @M_Montemurro
Scott Kingery feels like an obvious pick and for good reason. He finally should have a set position at either second base or third base after playing six different positions his first two years in the big leagues, and with that could come better offensive production and stability. His XBH% nearly doubled from 2018 to 2019 and with that, a spike in his home run rate. The biggest concern with Kingery’s offensive profile is his propensity to strike out. For all his offensive improvements last year after a dismal rookie season, Kingery’s strikeouts still increased and was among the worst in MLB (29.4 K%, fifth in majors). Kingery will be working with a new hitting coach, and perhaps the holes in his swing can be minimized, leading to fewer strikeouts and more hard-hit balls.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Rob Biertempfel, @RobBiertempfel
Gregory Polanco always was a bit of a wild card. He was streaky good/bad when he was healthy, but who knows what he’ll be like this year coming back from a major shoulder injury? Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, Kevin Newman — each had his moment last year, but I’m not sure if any of them will produce a great leap forward in 2020. So, biggest surprise … howzabout Kyle Crick? He came on strong during his first season with the Pirates in 2018. Last year, he had a very good 11.2 K/9, but a 6.4 BB/9 and a 1.8 HR/9 dragged him down. Those issues aren’t beyond repair, however, and the Pirates will need a closer when trade chip Keone Kela departs. Look for Crick to get some save opportunities early on in the season (Kela always is a risk to be injured or suspended) and perhaps take over the role by August.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Dennis Lin, @dennistlin
Dinelson Lamet seems like a pretty decent bet. He has wipeout stuff, iffy command and a Tommy John scar, though the early returns from the procedure are encouraging. Last season, among starters who threw at least 70 innings, Lamet was sixth in strikeout rate, at 33.3 percent. The five names ahead of him: Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Mike Clevinger. The others in the top 10: Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom, Robbie Ray. So, Lamet already is overpowering a large portion of his opponents. With the guidance of new pitching coach Larry Rothschild, a few tweaks could help him better deploy that wipeout stuff.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Andrew Baggarly, @extrabaggs
In a fantasy context, there isn’t much worth drafting on the Giants roster. But bad teams do tend to have closers who rack up a lot of saves, since they seldom win by more than a run or three. So Tony Watson could be a good buy-low candidate. The Giants will be invested in building his trade value, so he should get first crack at the closer role. The peripherals aren’t great. But cheap saves are cheap saves. And in the longer view, Shaun Anderson could be the guy who inhabits that role.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Corey Brock, @CoreyBrockMLB
The 2020 season figures to be a year for development for the Mariners and the many young players they will either break camp with or bring to the big leagues this season.
As for a surprise player, I’ll go with rookie first baseman Evan White, who has only played four games above the Triple-A level, but figures to see plenty of time in the big leagues this season. One, because he’s probably ready. And two, because the team handed him a six-year, $24 million deal this winter that surprised many.
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We know this already about White, who will turn 24 in April. The dude can flat out pick it defensively. Like he’s already considered a Gold Glove defender. The biggest question has been about his bat, though there’s reason to think it will play in the big leagues. His stance is more upright now, he gets the barrel of the bat out front more and he’s looking to do damage. The 18 home runs he hit in 2019 were a career-high and scouts feel there’s more power coming. What’s a realistic projection? I’m probably the wrong one to ask, but how about .260-15-50?
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Mark Saxon, @markasaxon
Paul DeJong finished last season in a serious tailspin, batting .202 with a .731 OPS after reaching his first All-Star game. That fade hid some very positive strides for DeJong, the most powerful shortstop in Cardinals history. His walk rate has risen three straight seasons while his strikeout rate has declined in three straight seasons. His .253 BABIP suggests some bad luck. His excellent defense means he will be given every opportunity to eclipse 600 plate appearances again in part because the Cardinals don’t have many other options at shortstop. DeJong is a good bet to have a bounceback season and, if things break well, he could break into an elite group of young shortstops.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Josh Tolentino, @JCTSports
The Rays have built a nice reputation at finding hidden talent in unique spots around the league. Last season, the Rays turned Ji-Man Choi into an everyday first baseman, transformed outfielder Austin Meadows and pitcher Tyler Glasnow into impact players and Yandy Diaz into a home run machine (two HR in wild card vs. Oakland). This year I’m keeping my eye on newly signed Japanese slugger Yosh*tomo Tsutsugo. He possesses a ton of power, leading Japan’s NPB league over the past four seasons with 139 home runs while ranking third in RBIs (372). The Rays still need to determine a position (1B/3B/OF) for the left-handed hitting Tsutsugo, but manager Kevin Cash seems slated to insert him somewhere in the middle of the lineup on a daily basis.
TEXAS RANGERS
Levi Weaver, @ThreeTwoEephus
“Who will be this year’s Danny Santana or Hunter Pence” is an interesting one in Texas, because there are questions and potential at just about every position. Joey Gallo’s early-season breakout in 2019 probably precludes him from the “non-superstar” status, but Willie Calhoun hasn’t had a full season in the big-leagues yet — is that too easy an answer? The only real question I have about him is whether or not his defense will be good enough to keep him in left field, but even that isn’t a big deal; if he’s a bad defender, then Shin-Soo Choo can still play out there somewhat-regularly, and Calhoun can play DH. He dropped a little over 25 pounds last offseason, and with a year under his belt, he hasn’t gone back to any old habits. That’s a great sign, as is his improved positivity toward (and trust in) the Rangers coaching staff. It’s not crazy to me to think he could be a borderline All-Star in 2020.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Kaitlyn McGrath, @KaitlynCMcGrath
Because of the tough time he had at the plate last season, Danny Jansen has the potential to surprise this year. In 2019, his rookie season, Jansen had a lot on his plate on the defensive end. As the catcher, he managed a pitching staff that saw 39 different pitchers take the mound throughout the season. His defence flourished in 2019, as he was a Gold Glove finalist and among the best defensive catchers in the league. But his offence left a lot to be desired.
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The thing is, throughout his minor-league career, Jansen was consistently seen as a bat-first catcher. He made it to the majors because of his offence. With that in mind, it’s reasonable to think that with a year of experience on his resume, plus a more stable rotation in Toronto, Jansen will perhaps be able to focus more on his offensive production this season. The Blue Jays starting catching job is also up for grabs,with Jansen and Reese McGuire competing for starts. So, there will be added incentive to perform on both sides of the plate.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Britt Ghiroli, @Britt_Ghiroli
I named six guys who matter more than you think already, so picking another one is tough! Carter Kieboom will command a lot of interest this spring, but I think the signing of reliever Will Harris will end up being perhaps the biggest boon for D.C. With the team absorbing the loss of Anthony Rendon, the bullpen — the worst in the Majors for most of last year — has to be better. Harris has a proven track record and has gone largely under-the-radar. He’s paramount to that group clicking.
(Note: Some teams are missing here. It’s likely because the writer is in transit, on vacation, in the middle of a big story, or something of that ilk. If we get late-coming answers, we’ll add them to the story!)
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(Top photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
