NRFI/YRFI - Baseball - Forums (2024)

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

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San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-115)

Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics (Game 2): NRFI (-145)

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

Got lucky yesterday to squeak out a coupla winners in a low scoring game.

2-0 yesterday, 56-51 season

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This has become my new favorite market for pitchers. To be eligible to record the win, a pitcher needs to do a few things. One, pitch at least five innings. Two, leave the game with your team winning and the bullpen never loses that lead. Wheeler has easily satisfied the first requirement this season since he’s completed at least 5 innings in 12 of his 13 outings. Plus, the Philadelphia ace already has 7 wins on the season, so he’s recorded a win in over 50% of his starts.

That’s because Wheeler has once again been an elite arm for the Phillies. He owns a 28.5% strikeout rate and has limited hitters to a .198 xBA to go with his phenomenal 2.23 ERA. Wheeler will be countered by Kutter Crawford, who had a stellar start to the year, but has come back to reality recently. In his first 10 starts, he had a solid 2.17 ERA. However, in his last 3 outings, Crawford has allowed 17 runs, 16 hits, 3 home runs, and 6 walks. The Phillies should be able to hang a few on Crawford, and I’m confident Wheeler will do what he does best.

Jordan Montgomery (ARI) Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-130)

The Diamondbacks thought they had hit the jackpot in the offseason by signing Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to their pitching staff. However, we’re two months into the season, and Montgomery has a 6.30 ERA in 9 starts and E-Rod has yet to make his Arizona debut. But back to Montgomery – the reigning World Series Champion has admitted that his lack of Spring Training has affected his first few starts. The lefty has been getting rocked left and right and has been nowhere near as effective as he was last season. In his 9 starts in 2024, Montgomery has allowed at least 6 hits in 7 of his last 8 starts. A big reason for his sudden failure is that he ranks in the 1st percentile in pitching run value. His sinker is no longer getting plenty of ground balls and his changeup is getting smashed in each start. Although the Angels don’t have the greatest offense, it should be strong enough to record at least 6 hits against the southpaw.

Joined: 12/12/2017

Posts: 15224

Volt......well done Mon.) buddy.....
BOL with your Tues. action.....indy

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

Thank you, indy

Joined: 12/12/2009

Posts: 23697

All the best, Mike.

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

Have a good one, Dennis

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

2-0 yesterday, 58-51 season

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Christopher Sanchez (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-122)
Playable to -130 odds. Risking 0.5u.

Christopher Sanchez (PHI) over 16.5 outs recorded (-114)
Playable to -125 odds. Risking 0.5u.

The Boston Red Sox have been providing opposing left-handed pitchers with advantageous matchups for some time now, and today we will look to take advantage of their weaknesses with Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez. Philadelphia’s southpaw has been a steady presence in the Phillies rotation this season, posting a 2.71 ERA and a 2.51 FIP while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of 12 starts and no more than 4 in any of those 12. He has done a solid job of limiting free passes this season, and his 89th-percentile chase rate is a major reason why. Sanchez thrives on drawing batters outside of the zone and Boston has the league’s 7th-highest chase rate across the last 30 days of play. In that span, they have connected on those chases at the 6th-lowest rate. Overall, during those 30 days, they also have the 10th-lowest in-zone contact rate and the 10th-highest CSW%.

Not only do the Red Sox show poor plate discipline, but their overall aggressiveness can also lead to quick plate appearances and deep outings for opposing starters. Their overall rate of pitches per plate appearance sits right around league average, but Sanchez averages just 3.77 P/PA himself, the 37th-lowest mark among 126 qualified pitchers this season. Not only is he efficient with his batters, but his elite groundball rate helps him generate double plays even when runners do reach first base. Limiting steals has been a concern for the lefty, but this is still a matchup I am a fan of.

Sanchez has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in just 5 of his 12 starts, but 2 of his misses were just short at 5 strikeouts, and Boston’s 27.7% K% against left-handers in the last 30 days is a league-worst mark. He has flashed upside in the strikeout department this season, including 10 against the Rockies the first time, 8 against both the Reds and Nationals, and 7 just 2 starts ago against the Giants. He has recorded 17 or more outs in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 6 times where he completed 6 full frames and twice when he covered 7 innings of work. Boston has allowed 11 of 15 non-opener southpaws to record 6 or more strikeouts against them this season. While only 7 of them have surpassed this outs recorded prop, Sanchez’s elite efficiency should be conducive to a long outing.

Joined: 12/12/2009

Posts: 23697

All the best, Mike.

Joined: 11/14/2021

Posts: 16479

Thanks, Dennis